July 30, 2011
A Fresh, NEW PAUL for President anyone?
by Scott Ryan
Rand Paul has done an outstanding job as a freshman US Senator. He has stood his ground; he has not waivered and in every interview I have thus far seen, he has done an OUTSTANDING job articulating his remonstrance of why he could not support –any- of the bills put forward in the House or Senate.
We have a few historical precedents in this nation of sons of previous Presidents succeeding their former Presidential fathers and many such examples in the House and Senate.
I think that Rand Paul has clearly demonstrated himself worthy of a NEW precedent, one in which the son of a distinguished congressional father becomes the US President after his father had on multiple attempts failed to win on multiple attempts.
I believe that Ron Paul has done an outstanding job as a congressman and was right on the money in his past warnings on the debt. He has earned the credence afforded him by his prescience on those issues. However his accuracy is not known or understood by more than a small fraction of Americans and he is simply not very marketable to enough Americans to win a presidential primary.
I always agreed with Ron Paul on his economic and pro-life positions but never supported Ron Paul in a primary because he seemed to underestimate the true threat of Islam while articulating his position on the Iraq war.
I don’t necessarily believe that we should be at war in the middle-east either but if I were comfortable to know that his agenda would include assurances that he would have a cohesive policy to protect us domestically from the Islamic invasion, I would have much more likely supported him in the past. But to say that we are just going to unilaterally “pull out” of Iraq and Afghanistan without demonstrating an alternative makes him appears as just another pacifist. I do not currently nor have I ever trusted the professed motivations for our being in Iraq and Afghanistan. I am incapable of suspending my disbelief that people of western values which are diametrically opposed to those of the Islamic middle-east can project their constitutional principles on a region of people whose religious values prevent a separation between their tyrannical religion and state and continue to do so today. Look at Africa for example. Their central “prophet” Muhammad grew the Islamic empire by subjugation and forced conversion. The fruits of Islam have always been tyranny. So I have no faith whatsoever that Democracy can flourish to any degree in those nations in which we are spending trillions of our tax dollars. I believe that about as much as I believe that there can EVER be a victorious ending to a “war on terror” as long as Islam is the dominant religion in those nations.
I have long suspected that regardless of which President is waging the purported “war on terror”, while the pretense for it has been to make democracy “take hold” in those nation, it has been more about a globalist agenda. This agenda has proven to take MORE American liberties away for our “security” than to provide freedom in those Islamic nations.
I was at Dulles Airport just outside our nation’s capital yesterday and was outraged as I heard over the intercom throughout the entire airport – that “there will be an Islamic prayer service held today at…. at …o’clock”. I was waiting for my flight for two hours and during that time, this “Islamic prayer service” was announced over the intercom TWO TIMES. During those hours, those were the ONLY announcements that were made over that airport intercom! This was in our nation’s CAPITAL. It’s time to wake up. Muslims are infiltrating our own military bases and killing our soldiers on our own soil. They are killing Americans, Africans, Europeans and Israelis all over the globe. Yet we don’t just give Islam deference in this nation, we give Islam PREFERENCE. We give preference to the very religion responsible for the fact that I stood in line at the gate for 30 minutes, being forced to take my shoes and belt off, enter an x-ray booth and have my Pepsodent tooth paste confiscated! Who is winning the war on terror when these same people get accomodated to the extent that they announce they are having a prayer service in that airport?
What are the odds that such solicitude would be given to CHRISTIANS if they were holding a “Christian prayer service" or bible study somewhere in Dulles airport? It is nothing less than perversion the way the left like to coddle the very people who want us – and them – dead. It is unexplainable the way they like to stroke these people other than to say that they must get some sick form of arousal by it akin to auto-erotic affixation. It is evil. Their hatred toward Christ and the principles upon which this great nation was founded clearly exceeds any devotion of freedom they might have.
Based upon the preference now given to this barbarianism even after September 11, 2001 and all of the terror attacks across the globe against westerners, tell me WHO is actually WINNING this “war on terror”.
All this being expatiated, it is not enough for Ron Paul to say that we are going to high tail it out of the middle-east and act like it never happened. The hornets are nesting. They attacked US first. They are in our midst as we saw at Fort Hood, as I heard yesterday at Dulles airport and as mosques continue to permeate this nation. It is not enough to declare victory - or defeat. I need to hear a clearly elucidated strategy on how we are going to DEFEND our nation against this scourge. That is where Ron Paul lost me.
I don’t mean this to criticize the Congressman. I give him accolades for his devotion to this country and for his economic prowess. He’s a true American patriot and has done exceptionally well for his country - but I think his time may have passed. Many conservatives were, like me, not quite comfortable with his foreign policy and could not support him in the primaries for that reason. Many others said he just didn’t seem to have that presidential quality or ability to win. Senator Rand Paul on the other hand seems to exude leadership characteristics that I have no problem declaring presidential. Senator Paul’s relative youth, vigor and demonstrated devotion to the constitutional principles he was elected to advance – make him a STRONG potential candidate for the presidency.
After seeing his frequent interviews during the past few weeks of this debt limit debate,Senator Paul's exceptional defense against the establishment in the Republican party as they along with the so-called conservative pundits urged him to capitulate – there can be absolutely no question about his loyalty and ability to defend this nation against the underhanded ambushes of the leftist and pseudo-right media.
We have a group of candidates who CLAIM they have those faculties – while many like Romney hide from taking a position –but Senator Rand Paul has been DEMONSTRATING his talents on the world state and has done so flawlessly as far as I can determine. I also think his experience as an MD should give him exceptional credentials in the war against Obamacare, not to mention the nobility that comes with his prior career when compared to the typical elected ambulance chaser.
This is not intended to be an endorsement of Senator Rand Paul. I have not committed my vote at this point but I certainly have not been impressed by the declared candidates as of yet. I also think Jim DeMint would be an exceptional candidate who has earned my immense admiration.
Contact: mrarbitrage@tableofwisdom.com
Have an emergency communications plan before the resuts of Washington's prodigality hits the fan. Do not allow yourself to be isolated from fellow conservatives in the event that the Saboteur and his rogues at the FCC move to shut down Internet communication as he has attemepted to gain control. Join the volunteers at http://www.cbPatriot.com in a volunteer project to create back-up emergency communications in the event that the Internet and cell phones are shut down.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Friday, July 22, 2011
July 23, 2011
Newsflash for the Pundits: Analysts have a poor collective track record
by Scott Ryan
Officials from Standard & Poor’s and other credit rating agencies told a gathering of Republicans this week that a default on the nation’s debt by the federal government could lead to a “death spiral” in the bond market.
We have enough tax revenue to make our interest payments so –not- increasing the debt ceiling shouldn't lead to a default on the interest payments. The significance of what has taken place in this incident is being misinterpreted.
Pundits Bill O’Reilly, Kudlow, Charles Krauthammer and old guard Senators like James Coburn are championing the status quo. Krauthammer is contending that Republicans have “over played their hand” and “appear as unreasonable”.
The fundamental problem with their melodrama is they are all making the mistake of assuming that the proffered opinion of S&P and Moody’s is somehow an axiom. Nobody is asking the question, who are these people and –why- should we blithely give their opinions credence? I take issue with the very premise. The notion that our debt- should- be DOWNGRADED based upon the debt ceiling not being raised is erroneous at its core and here’s why.
The people at these ratings agencies are merely analysts with their own opinions and are subject to their personal biases like anyone else. One thing that I have found about financial analysts in my career as a Financial Advisor is they are dead wrong at least as often as they are right. How soon we forget that many of these analysts slapped AAA ratings on CDO’s and CMO’s that were packed with tranches of pure garbage, liar loans. Most of these analysts LOVED the general obligation municipal bonds that were recently hammered down in valuation. Several years before the meltdown, municipal bond traders at a major global wire house told me that standard procedure was for these bond ratings agencies was to automatically slap a AAA+ rating on a GO bond if that state or municipality simply purchased an insurance policy from the muni bond insurers like MBIA & AMBAC. By the way, those insurers are not sound. One of the top bond insurers, AMBAC went bankrupt this past November and MBIA is on life support at best. Most of these muni bonds trade steeply below their IPO prices in the secondary market and are being propped up along with the junk bond market by the Federal Reserve’s exceedingly low interest rate policy.
Sure, we could see a self-fulfilling prophecy where our bonds trade down on Monday after a week of apocalyptic rhetoric. But the major buyers of US Treasuries in the primary market now have MORE reason to bid the price of Treasuries UPWARD as a result. The indisputable fact is that thanks to the tea party movement, we have finally elected a group to congress who recognize the gravity of the situation and are willing to stand up to the demagoguery that has for decades led to the pitiful compromise that CAUSED this situation. That cause has been the appeasement of and by self-serving politicians who rasied the debt ceiling over and over and over again - in order to buy votes.
If the GOP led congress had capitulated and done what their predecessors have done for decades, follow the path of least resistance, they would have signaled to the world that we do not have what it takes to save this country from certain bankruptcy. We do not have TIME to make symbolic gestures with diminutive cuts and growth killing tax increases, regardless of what some academic quants think at Standard & Poors. Smart money, i.e. countries and entities who buy up tens of billions worth of US paper – should have MORE confidence than yesterday that we are going to be able to exercise the fiscal discipline requisite to maintain these obligations into the distant future. I maintain that despite the manipulative rhetoric of Barack Obama and Harry Reed, the outlook for Treasuries and the US dollar is much more positive today than it was yesterday as a result of Boehner walking away from business as usual.
The “smart money” do not make their commitments based upon the prosaic reasoning of a Standard and Poor analyst. If prosperity truly was a corollary to reading an S&P report, the analysts at these agencies and the webmasters who publish the reports would be the wealthiest people on the planet because they get the “analysis” first. The strength of the US Treasury cannot be buttressed by Standard and Poors but rather the integrity of those who stand behind it.
Given the dismal track record of the analysts, I would no sooner solicit their subjective opinion on any financial instrument than I would that of an art or movie critic like Rodger Ebert. Ebert may be just as reliable. Concerning the scare tactics of the senate liberals, the last people I would listen to on fiscal matters is a group of elected ambulance chasers. The President would be much better suited to capitalizing on “slip and fall” victims. He and the rest of the lawyers should stick to that which they understand.
With the power of over-reaching government agencies like the SEC and a rogue Attorney General at his disposal, I can’t help but wonder what type of communication might be taking place between the Obama administration and executives at these ratings agencies that are profitable businesses in the highly regulated industry of Wall Street. Just saying - it might merit an investigation as the timing of their sudden proclamations could be perceived as somewhat peculiar.
As to the specious contentions of the establishment media pundits, they should be questioned as well. Krauthammer accusing them of “over playing their hand” (by not betraying us like they did before we lost our majority) - has a deceptive look of legitimacy because of the polls these pundits cite. In the same hour the pundits on Fox were was citing a poll that shows 60+ percent of Americans do NOT want the debt ceiling raised, these pundits cited a poll indicating that some 40%+ would “blame the Republicans if the debt ceiling isn’t raised”. Those two polls are actually somewhat congruent. The problem is that Krauthammer and the rest of the panel frame the polls and use their voice inflection to portray that as a NEGATIVE. If 60%+ of Americans DON’T WANT the debt ceiling to be raised – we should WANT the blame, especially if we actually BELIEVE in the cause which we advance!
- Scott Ryan
mrarbitrage@tableofwisdom.com
As one who likes to consider the record thought processes of those whose opinions I take into account, below are some relevant highlights to compare to the opinions of the analysts with whom I have for years taken issue.
My warning from June 2002 about the next crisis being in the banking sector:
http://boards.fool.com/my-warning-from-june-2002-about-the-next-crisis-29426392.aspx
"I fear that the next crises will be in the banking sector...The disease is a different kind of cancer. It's a seemingly inanimate form that is quickly devouring our foundation, which solely rests upon faith, character, morality and integrity. Independence Day is around the corner. Instead of having the nerve to sing the audacious request of “God bless America” right after we formally proclaimed in our Government God, you have no place in America, perhaps we should get on our knees and sing “God forgive America”."
"If they decide to get suckered into that Keynesian philosophy and try to SPEND our way to prosperity, we are going to have to jack up taxes, which will be the final death blow to this economy".
- MrArbitrage Sept 21,2001 http://boards.fool.com/the-panacea-to-our-economic-emergency-15788084.aspx?sort=whole (Time stamped by posting at 3rd party website)
Here’s a recent example of what Wall Street analysts bring to the table in terms of expertise. One day after I came out with a Buy recommendation on Under Armour, Inc. common shares (UA), an analyst from the most historically revered firm, Goldman Sachs came out with a Sell recommendation:
2/23/2009 MrArbitrage initiates his BUY.
"Goldman responds with a SELL: Under Armour-UA initiated with a Sell at Goldman 02/24 05:43 AM."
Beautiful call Goldman.
Historical quote for: UA
Monday, February 23, 2009 (date of Goldman's Sell rec)
Closing price: $14.12.
July 22nd: Share Price: $80.00
http://boards.fool.com/mrarbitrage-on-ua-long-22309-27464429.aspx?sort=whole
At Table Of Wisdom.com (link below) I have compiled years worth of other time-stamped, 3rd party, independent linked documentations of egregious analyst ratings along with my own detailed remonstrance. The great Dr. Burton Malkiel has an excellent book titled A Random Walk Down Wall Street in which he expatiates on the track record of the analysts. The book is a classic and was influential in shaping my outlook more than any other investment book author. I highly recommend reading it.
More… including warnings on GM woes from 2001-2003.… http://www.tableofwisdom.com/p/my-track-record.html
Newsflash for the Pundits: Analysts have a poor collective track record
by Scott Ryan
Officials from Standard & Poor’s and other credit rating agencies told a gathering of Republicans this week that a default on the nation’s debt by the federal government could lead to a “death spiral” in the bond market.
We have enough tax revenue to make our interest payments so –not- increasing the debt ceiling shouldn't lead to a default on the interest payments. The significance of what has taken place in this incident is being misinterpreted.
Pundits Bill O’Reilly, Kudlow, Charles Krauthammer and old guard Senators like James Coburn are championing the status quo. Krauthammer is contending that Republicans have “over played their hand” and “appear as unreasonable”.
The fundamental problem with their melodrama is they are all making the mistake of assuming that the proffered opinion of S&P and Moody’s is somehow an axiom. Nobody is asking the question, who are these people and –why- should we blithely give their opinions credence? I take issue with the very premise. The notion that our debt- should- be DOWNGRADED based upon the debt ceiling not being raised is erroneous at its core and here’s why.
The people at these ratings agencies are merely analysts with their own opinions and are subject to their personal biases like anyone else. One thing that I have found about financial analysts in my career as a Financial Advisor is they are dead wrong at least as often as they are right. How soon we forget that many of these analysts slapped AAA ratings on CDO’s and CMO’s that were packed with tranches of pure garbage, liar loans. Most of these analysts LOVED the general obligation municipal bonds that were recently hammered down in valuation. Several years before the meltdown, municipal bond traders at a major global wire house told me that standard procedure was for these bond ratings agencies was to automatically slap a AAA+ rating on a GO bond if that state or municipality simply purchased an insurance policy from the muni bond insurers like MBIA & AMBAC. By the way, those insurers are not sound. One of the top bond insurers, AMBAC went bankrupt this past November and MBIA is on life support at best. Most of these muni bonds trade steeply below their IPO prices in the secondary market and are being propped up along with the junk bond market by the Federal Reserve’s exceedingly low interest rate policy.
Sure, we could see a self-fulfilling prophecy where our bonds trade down on Monday after a week of apocalyptic rhetoric. But the major buyers of US Treasuries in the primary market now have MORE reason to bid the price of Treasuries UPWARD as a result. The indisputable fact is that thanks to the tea party movement, we have finally elected a group to congress who recognize the gravity of the situation and are willing to stand up to the demagoguery that has for decades led to the pitiful compromise that CAUSED this situation. That cause has been the appeasement of and by self-serving politicians who rasied the debt ceiling over and over and over again - in order to buy votes.
If the GOP led congress had capitulated and done what their predecessors have done for decades, follow the path of least resistance, they would have signaled to the world that we do not have what it takes to save this country from certain bankruptcy. We do not have TIME to make symbolic gestures with diminutive cuts and growth killing tax increases, regardless of what some academic quants think at Standard & Poors. Smart money, i.e. countries and entities who buy up tens of billions worth of US paper – should have MORE confidence than yesterday that we are going to be able to exercise the fiscal discipline requisite to maintain these obligations into the distant future. I maintain that despite the manipulative rhetoric of Barack Obama and Harry Reed, the outlook for Treasuries and the US dollar is much more positive today than it was yesterday as a result of Boehner walking away from business as usual.
The “smart money” do not make their commitments based upon the prosaic reasoning of a Standard and Poor analyst. If prosperity truly was a corollary to reading an S&P report, the analysts at these agencies and the webmasters who publish the reports would be the wealthiest people on the planet because they get the “analysis” first. The strength of the US Treasury cannot be buttressed by Standard and Poors but rather the integrity of those who stand behind it.
Given the dismal track record of the analysts, I would no sooner solicit their subjective opinion on any financial instrument than I would that of an art or movie critic like Rodger Ebert. Ebert may be just as reliable. Concerning the scare tactics of the senate liberals, the last people I would listen to on fiscal matters is a group of elected ambulance chasers. The President would be much better suited to capitalizing on “slip and fall” victims. He and the rest of the lawyers should stick to that which they understand.
With the power of over-reaching government agencies like the SEC and a rogue Attorney General at his disposal, I can’t help but wonder what type of communication might be taking place between the Obama administration and executives at these ratings agencies that are profitable businesses in the highly regulated industry of Wall Street. Just saying - it might merit an investigation as the timing of their sudden proclamations could be perceived as somewhat peculiar.
As to the specious contentions of the establishment media pundits, they should be questioned as well. Krauthammer accusing them of “over playing their hand” (by not betraying us like they did before we lost our majority) - has a deceptive look of legitimacy because of the polls these pundits cite. In the same hour the pundits on Fox were was citing a poll that shows 60+ percent of Americans do NOT want the debt ceiling raised, these pundits cited a poll indicating that some 40%+ would “blame the Republicans if the debt ceiling isn’t raised”. Those two polls are actually somewhat congruent. The problem is that Krauthammer and the rest of the panel frame the polls and use their voice inflection to portray that as a NEGATIVE. If 60%+ of Americans DON’T WANT the debt ceiling to be raised – we should WANT the blame, especially if we actually BELIEVE in the cause which we advance!
- Scott Ryan
mrarbitrage@tableofwisdom.com
As one who likes to consider the record thought processes of those whose opinions I take into account, below are some relevant highlights to compare to the opinions of the analysts with whom I have for years taken issue.
My warning from June 2002 about the next crisis being in the banking sector:
http://boards.fool.com/my-warning-from-june-2002-about-the-next-crisis-29426392.aspx
"I fear that the next crises will be in the banking sector...The disease is a different kind of cancer. It's a seemingly inanimate form that is quickly devouring our foundation, which solely rests upon faith, character, morality and integrity. Independence Day is around the corner. Instead of having the nerve to sing the audacious request of “God bless America” right after we formally proclaimed in our Government God, you have no place in America, perhaps we should get on our knees and sing “God forgive America”."
"If they decide to get suckered into that Keynesian philosophy and try to SPEND our way to prosperity, we are going to have to jack up taxes, which will be the final death blow to this economy".
- MrArbitrage Sept 21,2001 http://boards.fool.com/the-panacea-to-our-economic-emergency-15788084.aspx?sort=whole (Time stamped by posting at 3rd party website)
Here’s a recent example of what Wall Street analysts bring to the table in terms of expertise. One day after I came out with a Buy recommendation on Under Armour, Inc. common shares (UA), an analyst from the most historically revered firm, Goldman Sachs came out with a Sell recommendation:
2/23/2009 MrArbitrage initiates his BUY.
"Goldman responds with a SELL: Under Armour-UA initiated with a Sell at Goldman 02/24 05:43 AM."
Beautiful call Goldman.
Historical quote for: UA
Monday, February 23, 2009 (date of Goldman's Sell rec)
Closing price: $14.12.
July 22nd: Share Price: $80.00
http://boards.fool.com/mrarbitrage-on-ua-long-22309-27464429.aspx?sort=whole
At Table Of Wisdom.com (link below) I have compiled years worth of other time-stamped, 3rd party, independent linked documentations of egregious analyst ratings along with my own detailed remonstrance. The great Dr. Burton Malkiel has an excellent book titled A Random Walk Down Wall Street in which he expatiates on the track record of the analysts. The book is a classic and was influential in shaping my outlook more than any other investment book author. I highly recommend reading it.
More… including warnings on GM woes from 2001-2003.… http://www.tableofwisdom.com/p/my-track-record.html
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