Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Rupert Murdoch's unfaithfulness to America

by MrArbitrage

Conservative author Diane West just wrote an important column in which she points out some disturbing trends regarding the media mollycoddling of Islamic tyrants. The example she highlighted was their treatment of Geert Wilders. If you are not familiar with Mr. Wilders, it’s not surprising given the obvious pro-Islam bias our media has demonstrated. Wilders is leader of the Freedom Party in the Netherlands and has been sounding the alarms against the Islamization of Europe.

Wilders became internationally known for his controversial film called Fitna - roughly translated as "strife" in Arabic - which links the Quran to terrorism. No television company would broadcast the film and Dutch politicians tried to ban it. The British government had at one point banned Wilder from the UK on the grounds that he posed a threat to public security. In the liberal European media you will often hear of Wilder referred to as a “fascist”, which is incredible if you consider that Muslim leaders practically worship Adolph Hitler, the man with whom Muslims were aligned during WW II.

It really demonstrates the contempt the left has for historical reality. Unfortunately, as Diane West’s column highlights, some who we often hold in high esteem - share in this contempt for history as far as Islam is concerned.West highlighted the fact that multiple Fox News pundits including Glenn Beck and Charles Krauthammer are now branding Dutch Freedom Party leader Geert Wilders as “beyond the political pale”. (Following this column is a link to Geerts’ official website where he addresses Fox and Krauthammer directly.) What makes Fox’s sudden affection for Islam suspicious is - as Ms. West accurately put it - “Rupert Murdoch, for reasons unknown, sold what is now a seven percent stake of Fox’s parent company News Corp. to a scion of the sharia-dictatorship of Saudi Arabia, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.” West contended that “for the Fox commentators, supposedly punditry’s bulwark of Western values, to bring it up just to slap it down -- and without factual care (to say the least) -- was disappointing but also irresponsible.”

You cannot count on -anyone- these days. The goal of Islam elucidated by Muhammad, the Quran and the Hadith is to conquer the world.Islam’s plan for western civilization is very clear. If you are a Christian or some other type of "infidel", you will basically have two choices:
Males - convert to Islam or you will be executed.

Women & Children – Convert to Islam or you will be mutilated and literally enslaved.
Jews - must be murdered regardless. According to Islam and Muhammad, all Jews must be eradicated from the face of the Earth. (Hitler is still a hero in Islamic nations and Mein Kampf is still a best seller there eighty six years after being written.)

Islam is only "peace" for Muslims who know very little about their religion and do not follow it with fervor (just as there are many who call themselves Christians by birth or tradition but have no idea what makes one a Christian). That may be the majority of Muslims (if we are fortunate) but true Islam can be nothing less than savagery and if there should be a “great awakening” among those who claim the title of Muslim, all hell will be unleashed all over western civilization.

Many Christians do not regularly participate in "mission’s trips" like those taking place in Haiti and throughout the world every day; but “fundamentalist Christians” have been faithfully orchestrating them for over 2,000 years. What about Muslims? Where’s the fruit of their religion? If you think you haven't seen a Muslim missionary, you haven't looked closely enough. The Muslim missionary can be seen in Sudan, Indonesia, Nigeria and other parts of the world, following the example of its founder Muhammad, murdering, plundering and trading slaves. The most well know Muslim mission’s trip in the US took place on September 11th, 2001. That was -NOT- as the cretins of the west claim is "radical Islam". That was simply OBEDIENT and authentic Islam. Those who deny this fact taught and ordered by Islam and its “holy” books are in apostasy. Sure there are many who have resisted and are resisting as we are seeing in Iran. And those people are being murdered by their Islamic government for being “secular”. The people in Iran who want their freedom are heretics in the mind of the sick, twisted Islamic government. That is what they want to bring here to America and that is what they will succeed in exporting to America if we do not rid ourselves of the traitorous appeasers and profiteers who are selling out our country to this evil religion.

Those who take offense to these assertions are simply deluded by the propaganda of people like Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, George Soros, Rupert Murdoch and many others. They dismiss the truth with erroneous remarks like “there are extremists in every religion; you have whack job Christians that go out and kill people (like abortion Doctors)…” and the ever popular question “what about the crusades?” Those are comparisons often made by intelligent people who have some knowledge of history but are exceedingly ignorant of both Christianity and Islam. They are making a statement based upon what they –want- to be the case because it is simplistic.The reality is that throughout history there have been rulers in high places and Popes who –claimed- to be Christians - who were not. Anyone with knowledge of the Protestant Reformation knows that these corrupt leaders wouldn’t allow the Bible to be translated into the language that the people could read or understand –BECAUSE- what they were doing in the name of Christ was absolute corruption and in total contradiction to the teaching and works of Jesus Christ. These imposters were not at all Christians and they brutally murdered many reformers who dared to translate the words of Jesus Christ into the language of the people because they knew that once the people could learn the true word of God – their racket was over - and the truth would set the people free. This simple reality has been deliberately convoluted. Some are deceiving for financial gain and some are the same faction that gets aroused by sucking up to those who are determined to destroy America.

It is really quite simple to summarize. Simply look at the life and teachings of Jesus compared to the life and teachings of Muhammad. Those who believe in Jesus and follow his commands will love their neighbor as themselves and do unto others as they would have others do unto them. The commission that Jesus gave his disciples (and us) is to “go into all the world and make disciples of all men.” That is the catalyst which prompts real Christians to traverse the world feeding the poor, healing the sick, building hospitals, orphanages, drilling wells, etc. Jesus said whatever you do unto the LEAST of THESE, you have done unto ME. That-is the example that Christ set and what he instructed his followers-Christians- to do. Again, this is much different than Jihad, which is the work of the Muslim “missionary”. Scour the Earth for a demonstration of their good deeds and all you will find is what we have seen in New York City, Yemen, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, Nairobi, Kenya and countless ongoing atrocities to boot.

Here is a photo of a boy who lived on a beautiful family farm as a child in southern Sudan until he was visited by some muslim missionaries. Here is an excerpt but go ahead and read his short story. "Men with guns were entering the town. Men on horses, shooting with their rifles, slashing people with their swords, chopping off heads with a single swipe. Someone grabbed me from behind - a murahaliin, yelling and waving his gun. He pushed me back together with other boys and girls. Everyone was crying and screaming for their parents. There were no Dinka men standing, everywhere I turn, I saw blood running from them like water in rivers."

We are begging to be destroyed. I hope everyone is feeling good about themselves in the process. That’s what this is all about, “look at me, I’m such a humanitarian because I pacify terrorists, I'm such a diplomat…” They gave Yasser Arafat a friggin Nobel Peace Prize!In regard to Diane West’s column, I cannot say I’m surprised by Murdoch’s selling us out. Just because I prefer Fox News over the others, I have no delusions about this guy. It is clear Murdoch has put his back pocket ahead of US national security and national morality. Murdoch through the Fox Network is the biggest purveyor of filth on television. His company leads the pack on pushing the limits of acceptability and vilifying the faith upon which this nation was founded. He may have trouble with exposing the truth of Islam but Murdoch definitely has no problem PROFITEERING off of the mockery of Jesus Christ.

Here are a couple samples of his toxic assault on our nation. It is important that you view this as a responsible American because you SHOULD be offended that this is even on the airwaves. “Jesus Comes to Dinner”

I could no longer obtain a link to the worst of them. A March 30, 2009 “Family Guy” episode pushed the homosexual agenda and denigrated Christ again. At a "straight" meeting, the speaker talks to gays about Jesus and tells them, "Jesus Christ, who hates many people, but none more than homosexuals.” (PepsiCo helped sponsor the program.) Notice how Murdoch profits by putting such unthinkable filth on the airwaves.

Can you imagine what would happen if the left mocked Muhammad in this way? Can you imagine if the “Curb Your Enthusiasm” episode where Larry David urinated on a painting of Jesus’ face had instead urinated on a painting depicting the face of Muhammad? It wouldn’t HAPPEN! (Curb you enthusiasm scene below)

The media, at our peril, venerate the terrorist Muhammad – and to be honest, that word is a euphemism for the so-called “prophet”. As I look at the western media dismissing a prescient man like Wilders, it reminds me of the years of disdain that Sir Winston Churchill endured from Parliament and the media as he vociferously warned them of the evils of Adolf Hitler.

The ignorance toward the murderous intent of Islam upon the entire globe is absolutely surreal. Couple that with the extreme hostility those same appeasers of Islam have toward Christ and it will strengthen the faith of anyone who knows the scriptures because of the accuracy of the promises, one of which is that good will be looked upon as evil and evil as good.

When I say it is surreal it is because the global treachery is all so obvious and undeniable to anyone who simply reads Islamic history and examines the Quran and the Hadith. To anyone with even a modicum of intellectual capability, it would seem IMPOSSIBLE for what we see happening – to actually be happening! But it IS! It is like Invasion of the BRAIN Snatchers.

I remember reading the prophecies in Revelation as a child and having a difficult time picturing the following specific verse being fulfilled: "And I saw thrones, and they sat upon them, and judgment was given unto them: and I saw the souls of them that were beheaded for the witness of Jesus, and for the word of God, and which had not worshipped the beast, neither his image, neither had received his mark upon their foreheads, or in their hands; and they lived and reigned with Christ a thousand years." Revelation 20:4.

The time of my childhood was a time before Islam was a thought on most of our American minds. Now as I read that passage, it makes me think it is entirely plausible that Islam does conquer the world. It was too difficult to picture beheadings at some point being received as a widespread form of capital punishment. In the context of today’s reality, it is much easier to see because, in the middle-east, beheadings are a normal part of life. In Saudi-Arabia beheading is the punishment for converting from Islam to Christianity. This is the type of law that they will bring to the entire world with the help of the high profile traitors like those previously enumerated as well as those eternally credulous and apathetic westerners who live for the plaudits that come with political correctness and appeasing those who want you dead.

I’ll never be able to erase from my mind the live broadcast by the Hollywood A-list after the Muslim mission’s trip of September 11th. A day or two later while the smoke and fire of the twin towers were still smoldering, Actor Will Smith on a national telethon, stood before the camera with a frail Muhammad Ali by his side and praised Islam for being such a “religion of peace.” What has Islam or ANY Muslim in the world ever done to deserve such laudations?

Where were these Hollywood degenerates when Mother Theresa died? You barely heard a mention of her deeds from the media or any of these shallow narcissists because ironically, Princess Diana died on the same day and they were all too busy worshipping the former princess for her lifelong self-sacrifices.

To Murdoch, the Hollywood miscreants and all of those in government who wish to sell out the United States for a few billion: If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude political correctness better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen. - Samuel Adams (adapted for 21st Century by MrArbitrage)

Contact: Sources: (Official website of Geert Wilders)

Special thanks to for forwarding the column to me that was the catalyst for my column.

Monday, March 15, 2010

China’s Bear Call Spread on the United States
Our elected swindlers have reached a major milestone this year or I should say millstone (around our necks)। As noted in an AP column today, for more than two decades, Social Security collected billions more in payroll taxes than it paid out in benefits but not anymore. This year the program is projected to pay out near $29 billion more in benefits than it collects in taxes.
AP writer STEPHEN OHLEMACHER pointed out that although US Treasury Bonds are normally issued only in electronic from, THESE congressional IOU’s came with actual paper certificates! I found that amusing, as though they now have more intrinsic value because our prodigal government took the trouble to have the $2।5 TRILLION in bonds printed! Hey, Confederate dollars were printed. How did that help? When you have $2.5 trillion of something, there won’t be much antique value.

This is the legacy that people like Ted Kennedy and John Murtha left behind for us. They were here to live through the plaudits of the leftist media. Now they are gone and we are stuck with the consequences.The government purportedly borrowed the money from the Social Security “trust fund” because they didn’t want to borrow from foreign creditors. If we take that claim at face value, it is ironic that Social Security is now dependent upon the Communist Chinese of all possible foreign creditors. China had us in a compromising position –before- but now think of the implications! Just picture what will happen when China decides to –stop- buying our debt and suddenly the Federal government cannot borrow the money necessary to pay out the current benefits.

I wrote a lengthy column on this subject titled The Most Deadly Platitude of the 20th Century in which I enlarged upon the deadly platitude that “China would never do that to us because they would hurt themselves as much as they would hurt us.” People who say that usually have little understanding of advanced financial strategies. They do not understand that you can actually be long on an investment and simultaneously profit by its obliteration. One common strategy is called a “Bear Call Spread” where you play both sides of a stock (or underlying investment vehicle) –but- your bias is toward the downside when you purchase at an out-of-the-money Call option while selling an at the money Call option.

There are other ways of accomplishing the goal but the objective is to play both sides of the market with the large profit occuring as the underlying investment plummets. That is where China is heading in order to win this game. They may not be any more devious than our elected scoundrels but they have had significantly more practice so the advantage goes to them.Just like any other major attack that has succeeded against America, the warning signs were everywhere but the enemy succeeded because of our propensity to live in denial that it couldn’t happen.

They cannot get themselves to think that a powerful communist country with the largest population on Earth could ever intend to dominate the world with the communist economic and belief system. Never mind that when communism fails the communists contend that it simply “wasn’t done right” and that world uniformity is absolutely necessary for communism to properly work.

This is for all the chips. They are gradually cornering the market in valuable commodities and when they are ready, they will pull the plug. You will see the panic ensue as the US government cannot get enough buyers at the Treasury auction to make those Social Security payments. That is when the printing presses will go into a gear the heights of which nobody has ever witnessed. The inflationary result will be at a level not seen since Soylent Green (rhyme intended). Communism is brutal and they will have no compunction about what may befall the US and even their own citizenry as their strategic state owned positions will make them the premier global power.

America will have to go crawling to them like George Bailey did to Mr. Potter after Uncle Billy lost the deposit and the Bank Examiner was closing in. Unfortunately, there will not be any Sam Wainwrights to bail us out in the end because that has always been –our- role. The countries that fair best will be the world’s dictatorships. You will have the oil rich dictatorships in the Arabic world and the commodity rich communist dictatorships of China (and Russia, also commodity rich will revert back to communism). Not coincidentally, these countries have long been aligned against the west.

Hmmm, Communism as an economic system and Islam as a ruling religion (Sharia law), what an intriguing hybrid. It just so happens that our occupant at 1600 seems to be the personification of the two world views.


I really don’t have any delusions that anyone is going to listen to me on this matter and I really don’t have any doubt I will be right about China. It feels like it is an academic exercise, just like the exercises you will see (by clicking the “My Track Record” tab on your left) that I made when I warned about this economic disaster on August, 2001, before the world went to hell-in-a hand basket, a time when terrorists and Jihad were the furthest things from our minds. You will see the warnings about General Motors 8-9 years ago when GM was at all-time highs. You will see early warnings about the AOL-Time Warner and other famous debacles all time-stamped from independent, 3rd party sites where I posted my columns when written so that there would be no question as to when they were written. Most financial writers claim to have warned about every past disaster known to man but they do not show you the proof, which is why I document them here. Here is the value: You cannot stop these lemmings from running over a cliff but you –can- at least position yourself for what is inevitable.Sources:
AP article February 10, 2010 The Most Deadly Platitude of the 21st Century by MrArbitrage

Friday, March 5, 2010

Do You Really Want your Country Back? McCain v. Hayworth - a key Appraisal of Resolve
by MrArbitrage
This race has national importance for a number of reasons, one of which is it will demonstrate that for a majority of Republicans, John McCain was near the bottom of candidate choices in the 2008 primary. Initially, he could only win through the wide dilution of conservative votes, spread over several candidates. If –instead- of voting on which presidential candidate we actually wanted, we were voting on the one whom we found the LEAST palatable, McCain would have probably won that “inverse-election” by a land-slide. If it were a reality TV show, the Senator would have been quickly “booted off the island”.

Most conservatives have no enmity for Senator McCain as a person but as a Senator we have long found his actions appalling. To represent the people of this country one should expect to be held to the highest scrutiny. This election is indeed a test to determine whether we truly want to “take our country back” or if that expression is a mere platitude

For Arizonans to leave Senator McCain in that seat would be to proclaim to the nation that they have not learned a thing from our past disasters. Republicans cannot continue to allow imposters to undermine our fundamental principles and alienate the conservative base of our party. It seems clear that after the GOP negligence in squandering the majority we recently held, conservatives want –almost- a complete changing of the guard.

From McCain-Feingold to his “Gang of 14” betrayal, the kind of compromise that John McCain represents makes him the embodiment of everything we did wrong over the past decade.This would be an auspicious time for Senator McCain to bow out gracefully because the Jacobin’s are at the gate and their patience is wearing thin. We can throw him a nice going away party and he can spend the rest of his golden years with his family.

At certain critical junctures of our nation there was need for the wisdom of an old sage on the floor (like during the Constitutional Convention of 1787); but John McCain needs to know that he is no Ben Franklin and it was his cooperation for adulation that paved the way for the debacle in which we find ourselves ensnared.McCain v. Hayworth is a bellwether race. It will be useful in measuring the degree of resolve we truly have toward the goal of returning to our constitution and founding principles.

We can all participate in this race through our financial contributions - but only Arizonans can answer the question of whether the prodigal has come home or if he is still out blowing his inheritance. Have we suffered enough pain? If you would like to get involved by contributing to the J.D. Hayworth campaign, click this link and it will take you to his official website:


Friday, February 26, 2010

Introducing a BETTER US Currency
By MrArbitrage

The media and analysts are mystified as to why gold is suddenly going up in tandem with the US Dollar because they traditionally have an inverse relationship. This buttresses what I have been contending here for years. Whether the dollar is up or down versus other world currencies is about as relevant as a step ladder on the Titanic. Better yet, remember (in the movie) all of those people who rushed to one end in the ship so when the opposite side sank first, they were momentarily lifted high in the sky as though they were at the top of a sinking sky-scraper? Well, that’s the global currency situation and it’s still too soon to say which nation will have the luxury of drowning on the “upward” end. If you haven’t guessed yet, gold and other precious metals are the proverbial lifeboat and as with the Titanic, few people had a lifeboat in the end because of negligence in preparing.

It always amuses me how "economists" view situations and often come to erroneous conclusions. Some fallacies like the Sun and planets revolving around the Earth have a deceptive allure to them because of appearances. Other fallacies, like the notion that “gold is being quite the rebel lately” as one headline at reads today, have additional help from those who have a vested interest in the notion.

It’s mainly the persistent prodigality and plunder of our elected scoundrels that is driving up the price of gold. It’s not just gold; you see oil here at $80 per barrel in a horrendous economy because of the counterfeiting of our elected scoundrels. It is all related. These criminals have for the past year been trying to further con us by outwardly scoffing at the notion of “inflation” and are “warning” us about what they absurdly predict will be “deflation”.

Swindlers like Charlie Rangel, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd have to lie to you in order to prop up their scam. You want me to believe in DEFLATION? Ok, I will say here and now that we have RAMPANT deflation – in our currency- but CERTAINLY not in food, energy, and products that are essential to human sustenance. Sure you can get a great price on a 60 inch plasma TV – because most people cannot afford the plasma right now, nor do they NEED it.

I honestly don’t understand how people actually fall for this nonsense. I live in the real world. I buy my gasoline and see what is happening at the pumps. I buy my groceries and it is nothing short of stunning what their counterfeiting has done at the stores. I was at Sam’s Club yesterday and an average size container of blueberries was $8.00 and an average container of strawberries was $6.00! My generic, store brand gallon of “purified” water is up 30% in a two month period. What items haven’t –technically-gone up in price (like ice cream and soda) have shrunken in quantity by 30%.

So I was waiting in line at the grocery store yesterday. Rather than read more about the sordid Tiger Woods exploits, I took a look at the candy isles that surrounded me and remembered that not so long ago I could buy 2-3 candy items for a buck. Sensing an inflation tirade coming on, I took out my Blackberry camera and took some pictures. I was amazed at how little that dollar can now procure in the way of sweets. The photo below pictures the reality of where we are. The Hershey bar, the M&M’s, KitKat, Twix... are all $1.05 with Florida tax

See all the gum: My US Dollar cannot even buy me the cheap, second tier singled pack- of "Freedent" gum! Deflation??? Where are the pitch forks?

Ladies and gentlemen, this is serious. These illustrations may seem trifling to some but these are the foreshocks of hyper-inflation to come. As you can see, serious damage has already been done. But it isn’t over. As we witnessed on February 25, 2010 – the elected scoundrels met to devise a way to further plunge our nation into the abyss. What they are trying to promulgate with their government healthcare scheme is unmitigated economic jihad on the US dollar and will absolutely require trillions in additional counterfeit dollars. If you –own- debt (bonds) and cash/equivalents – you are unprotected.

Let’s suppose you already own gold and/or silver but you want to add something to your hedging program that can easily be traded as –currency- in smaller denominations.

I have an idea for you. To set the table for this one, I think we agree it is an axiom that our dollar is secured by little more than the empty rhetoric of elected swindlers. Due to their profusion, the dollar has lost over 90% of its value over the past century and they are on their way to 100%. Because they took us off of the gold standard, there is no measurable valuation for our currency and the same goes for our Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds.

By thinking a little outside the box, the realization came to me that the US Government currently issues an overlooked vehicle that COULD easily function as a cash-like currency –and- an investment. Unlike the Federal Reserve Notes we use, this vehicle is backed by something with measurable, intrinsic value. The best part is that it could also go far higher in value than the broad inflation rate.

Without further ado, the idea I bring you is none other than the US Postal Service’s recently introduced “Forever Stamp” (Pictured below).

The US Postal Service is not going away regardless of their balance sheet. They should make major adjustments but regardless, mail will continue to be delivered and this stamp is a GUARANTEE by the US government. It is not an empty guarantee giving you a claim to mere “thin air”. As it is written on their website (linked below) – “The Forever stamp will always be valid as First–Class postage on standard envelopes weighing one ounce or less, regardless of any subsequent increases in the First–Class rate.”Source:

THINK about that. That little stamp currently GUARANTEES you that you can transport a standard envelope weighing 1 oz or less – all the way across the continental United States. That takes gasoline friends. Not only does it give you claim on energy, it also gives you a piece of “manpower” regardless of wage inflation. If the dollar continues to plummet, causing gasoline to go to $500 per barrel and minimum wage to $50.00 per hour, you still have the right to transport that envelope from Key West to Seattle if you want. Now that’s a great deal more than what Little Timmy Bonaparte at Treasury is guaranteeing! Going forward in a hyper-inflationary environment, the USPS will have to raise prices on postage dramatically, creating a secondary market for “Forever Stamps”. Any difference in the spread between new stamps and the old Forever Stamps would be what I dub henceforth as “stamp arbitrage”. Efficient markets wouldn’t allow for that spread remaining wide for long.

Yes this idea is bordering on the tongue-in-cheek side but you never know. It could sweep the nation if enough people and business owners gradually participated. If it hit the proverbial fan, this would be easier than bartering with the gold dust you might have to grind up from your bullion (for smaller purchases). Item prices could be quoted in terms of the quantity of stamps for smaller items and in “books” (currently $8.80 for a book of twenty) for larger items. I don’t expect Wal-Mart and McDonalds to accept stamps as currency anytime soon but if you are a business owner who doesn’t mind holding some stamps and you are fed up with the financial jihad being waged against you by your elected swindlers - put a little sign in your window that says “We accept Forever Stamps” or “Forever Stamps are same as Cash”. You may even offer a little discount initially to get attention. If enough businesses and consumers started participating, it could take off. If we forced the government to eliminate the Forever Stamps due to the coming losses – at least we would have done something.

Just please don’t share this with China or they may bid up the stamp market while dumping their Treasuries. Wink.

Footnotes: Now before you start tell me how ineptly run the US Postal Service is – let me just say – I AGREE! But so is the US government overall and if I had to decide whether I wanted the folks at the USPS managing my healthcare or the Congress, Senate and President, I would opt for the USPS. They actually were the ONLY branch of the federal government to turn a profit until email came along. Back in the 90’s they were turning profits of over $500 million a year. I do not sell gold and this is not a commercial. My goal is to bring value in the quality of my columns because writing is one of my singular greatest felicities and my goal is to eventually leave the business of investment banking and do this full-time. If you would like to use material from the columns, feel free, just please use proper attribution. Contact:

Friday, January 15, 2010

January 15, 2010

MrArbitrage on Wall Street & Intel: "This one goes to eleven"

Marketwatch featured a column today regarding the fall of Intel’s stock price in spite of beating the consensus in a strong quarter. The concern is that although Intel is executing perfectly, they may be “peaking” and there are signs that margins are eroding.

The column is full of statements like “analysts had expected…” “analysts currently project…”

There’s the problem right there. Although I’ve been in this industry of “Wall Street” for a long time, it got me thinking - why even have analysts when all of these companies provide such guidance? Who knows better of what to anticipate than the people running the company? And the executives seem to be held to more scrutiny than the analysts. How many Wall Street analysts do you see going away in handcuffs versus CEOs? I laugh when I see the numbers analysts “expect” versus the company guidance because it’s usually within a few cents. I would LOVE to see how FAR OFF Wall Street analysts would be if they were not given guidance from these companies. I would love to see their raw due diligence and how they came to their numbers (I’m smirking).

It’s a farce. I mean, we all know the companies like to under-promise and over-deliver so they can “beat expectations” – but I think we are smart enough to figure that out and just round up a few cents to come up with our own expectations.

It reminds me of a scene from the cult classic film “This is Spinal Tap” where "Nigel", the metal guitarist is showing off his custom Marshall amplifier to the interviewer (played by Rob Reiner). In this scene, Nigel boasts about how most amplifiers only go to 10, while -his- "goes to 11". Reiner asks “Nigel” the question “why not just make 10 louder and make 10 be the top number?” Perplexed, Nigel pauses and answers “but this one goes to 11”. (Here’s the scene if you haven’t seen it.

This scenario is analogous to Wall Street analysis. Why not make the template adjustment to the corporate guidance yourself instead of paying an overpriced analyst’s salary? The answer to this rhetorical question is that they create an illusion of complexity that helps sell their services.

One of the quoted analysts wrote "Although we believe Intel is executing flawlessly, we are seeing several signs of a peak in the stock in terms of gross margins and earnings,.

I wrote a piece eight years ago on Intel that is relevant to this situation:

DATE: 1/16/2002 TITLE: “To the Pollyanalysts” (time-stamped verification)

"Letter to the Analysts":

It's a tragedy that people still listen to you charlatans. Do earnings mean anything to you?
Does market cap mean anything to you?

When a company like Intel has its earnings drop 80% and it is still priced not for perfection as some like to say, but rather for stupidity, what do you do? You stick to your guns in order to save face and declare it a strong buy! It is typical of human nature to mitigate as you do in order to save face; however, it is disgraceful when your saving face is at the expense of millions of people. With INTC currently near its 52 week high and a market cap of about $240 BILLION DOLLARS, Intel will need to reach a market cap of about $1 trillion dollars in order to live up to the premium by which it now trades.

If Intel's near term future was so rosy, they would be increasing capital spending - not decreasing it. They should also be pumping up R&D spending because they are going to need to open new industries if they are going to reach the new highs from here which you predict. The actions of Intel don't seem to match the zeal priced into the stock, after all, as I have been challenged over the past several months for propounding the notion that the nature and history of technology is attrition in profits and margins despite the improvement of technology, the contention was that Intel would spend money fervently in order to create new markets. That was the justification I was given for such an extraordinary premium for diminutive earnings.

It will be absolutely necessary for Intel to re-invent itself to warrant this price because during their glory years, most people didn't yet own computers so naturally sales would be quite strong. It was the same way with automobiles, radios, televisions, VCR's etc.

The Calculator business was once a highly profitable growth industry. Now that so many people already own computers, there needs to be a pretty compelling quantum leap in technology for most people to keep that extraordinary growth rate of the 1990's going.

There is no such incentive at this time. Unfortunately, Intel is priced at the 50% EPS growth rate at this time while growth rates have actually been receding by the double digits! The price doesn't make sense.

I'm not saying that Intel is a bad company. There is nothing wrong with Intel. There is something wrong with Intel's price. I might add that it is through no fault of their own, unless Arthur Andersen is doing their accounting. The current egregious error in Intel's price in my opinion is directly attributable to the charlatanism of the Wall Street analysts coupled with the excessive credulity of the investors and fund managers. I believe we have a castle in the air my friends. Remember $240 BILLION Dollars is a lot of money, even in this day and age. In order to be willing to pay $240 bills for this company, one has to believe that Intel is heading to at least a half of a trillion dollars in market cap while jobs continue to be obliterated...

As I predicted in December, the new wave of cuts are coming after the major new cuts in automotive firings. We are in recession. Unemployment is going to the double digits and there is no compelling technology out there to start a massive wave of upgrades in tech spending.

So, all of you pseudo-analysts out there, sit back and have another hit of the old peace pipe."

In retrospect, not only did people scoff at my Intel price target, they also ridiculed my double digit unemployment prediction.


Wednesday, April 22, 2009

April 22, 2009

The Diabolical Genius of TARP
by MrArbitrage

David Weidner of wrote a column regarding the issue of banks hoarding the TARP money and not passing it on to consumers in the form of loans. The title of Weidner’s column is “Your credit is no good here”, in which he makes the case of why banks need to pull back from lending.

In his column Weidner points out a strange dichotomy in the position of Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis who has been talking publicly about how they are lending as if the good times never ended. Yet on a recent conference call Lewis said “credit is bad and we believe credit is going to get worse before it will eventually stabilize and improve.” Also on that conference call Lewis described a “deep recession that's going to be here for months.”

Unfortunately it may be here for YEARS thanks to our government prolonging the agony instead of letting nature run its course. It’s funny how much these kooks supposedly believe in “nature” when it comes to their desire of not interfering with the eco-system. If only they could make the correlation between their tampering with the laws of economic nature and realize it is very much analogous to the former.

Weidner wrote that “six months later, it's fair to say TARP has helped prop up some banks, but it hasn't flowed into the consumer credit markets the way the framers intended.”

That’s because those “framers” are blithering idiots at best, otherwise complete scoundrels. Just watch and listen to Chris Dodd and Barney Frank; enough said.

THANK GOD it hasn’t flowed through “the way the framers intended”. It stands to reason that credit would dramatically abate. It’s called going back to generally accepted underwriting procedures. The way these elected swindlers designed TARP was apparently not to fix the problem but rather to keep the Ponzi going until they are dead and gone.

While pondering the question of whether or not banks should open the proverbial spigot, just ask yourself this question: Would I personally make these loans from my own savings account? It’s a great question because under “Obamunism” - if the loans are bad – you are making them.

That’s the diabolical genius of Obama and little Timmy’s (picture Dr’ Evil’s “Mimi-me”) scheme to convert the Preferred Bank Shares to Common stock. It would appear that if they could take control of the management of these institutions by gaining control of the Boards and a large percentage of voting shares, they would essentially be able to engage in the type of reckless spending i.e. wealth re-distribution without having to bother with Congressional approval. It would be a minor technicality that they would be calling the redistribution “loans” instead of “spending”. This new spending could essentially be viewed by the recipients as “forgivable loans”. That’s chicanery at its finest! It would be a lousy deal for shareholders because any profits from the -good loans- made by the bank would be wiped out by all of the bad loans. If these preferred shares do get converted to common, don’t look for much in the way of dividends if you are a shareholder because any “profits” will end up in the hands of organizations favored by the administration that is controlling the Treasury Department. Looked at from this perspective, this would undoubtedly be the biggest bank heist in the history of the world. Instead of the tax-payers getting paid back with the present high yielding Preferred dividends, we will own equity positions in banks that will never pay dividends again as they become a piggy bank for governmental pet projects and corruption.

If you want to see the disingenuous motivation behind their proposal to convert the Preferreds to Common, let’s require that the conversion only take place if 100% of the Common is placed in -private- Social Security accounts for “Generation X” to be systematically divested over the next eight years with all voting rights diluted by the individual recipients of these accounts. (I chose Gen-X because they have paid into SS for decades, will continue to do so to fund the Boomers retirements – but will never receive anything close to what they’ve paid in.) That would take away the true motivation, which is control.

Subsequently, I’ve never heard of anyone converting Preferred stock to Common stock –without- the “convertible” feature being in the Indenture or Prospectus upon issuance. If these shares were indeed convertible, WHY was this considered NEWS as it was a few days ago when the trial balloon was floated?

In his conclusion Mr. Weidner wrote that “taxpayers fuming about the banks' unwillingness to loan government money into the system might reconsider, given that the banks are actually being prudent with taxpayer cash.”

That is absolutely correct; however, one cannot help but wonder what might have been if these prodigals had just returned the capital, all of these trillions of dollars, to its rightful owners, the people who created it. That would have been too radical, too “unfair”. So grab your popcorn, sit back and enjoy the deliberate destruction of western civilization. Don’t forget to thank your treasonous scoundrel in DC and your indoctrinated grandchildren for electing our Hussein.


Tuesday, March 3, 2009

March 3, 2009

O'Reilly doesn't get it
by MrArbitrage

O'reilly doesn't get it. He's telling Brit Hume that the market pulling back 1,200% must be shaking him up... the American people may turn against him...”

O'Reilly doesn't get the fact that Hussein doesn't CARE. The media have not yet gotten what I've been saying for many months – he WANTS to tear it down. He WANTS to destroy our economy. He WANTS to tear apart our country.

It is not a coincidence that he, from the day he declared his candidacy, has been setting himself up before the nation as a form of Abraham Lincoln. It is marketing expertise. He stood in front of that state house where Lincoln served with a picture of Lincoln behind him as he declared his candidacy. He did so throughout his campaign announcing Biden as his running mate. He did so when he was sworn into office on Lincoln's Bible and even put the same freaking MENU Lincoln had served at his inauguration.

There is much more than symbolism going on here. There is a subliminal thought association game taking place and it isn't because Hussein is a history buff.

Watching the insane legislation he is promulgating and to listen to the fear incitement in his speeches by the deliberate and incessant usage of words like “crisis” and “disaster” - to conclude that he is setting out to do anything other than bring this country to our knees would be an egregious demonstration in credulity.

The Lincoln word association game is planting psychological seeds in the minds of the masses because this guy is so cunning that he is anticipating months or years down the road. By than he will be seen as the “modern Lincoln” and the masses will be convinced of his rectitude as Pavlov's dog is convinced on cue without any rational thought.

This is all unprecedented. He may well be expecting civil war and it looks like he's doing everything he can to prompt states with any ethical standards to secede. The creepy thing is that this year is Lincoln's 200th birthday.


Monday, March 2, 2009

The Devil's in the Details but they don't matter when You've already followed him to Hell

by MrArbitrage

There goes twelve years of gain. This debacle could have been avoided with a dramatic, 25% across the board tax cut with commensurate spending cuts. There is enough pork to accomplish this. Everyone is announcing lay-offs to try to stop the bleeding; where’s the announcement that the IRS will be laying off a percentage of its workforce? If you’ve ever called them to try to fix any of their screw ups, I don’t need to tell you that most of them are useless “dead weight”.

Marketwatch featured a column today referring to this market as a “Darwinian Market”. This isn’t a Darwinian market nor is this a traditional correction. It is more like a Marxist or Stalinist market and the bottom could be zero at the rate this "home grown" economic terrorism is playing out.

I was listening to a Fox News panel this evening as Mara Liasson was critiquing this administration. She was being slightly objective. Her criticism of Obama and Geithner was that they didn't elucidate upon the details as promised because they didn't know what they were themselves. She concluded that "Wall Street" simply "doesn't like uncertainty". I completely disagree with the overall premise. It is true that Wall has never liked uncertainty; however, it is quite erroneous to assert that Wall Street will suddenly be pumped with confidence when Obama and Geithner get more specific on how the bailouts are going to work.

I think the market got the picture late last week when the Obamunist Manifesto was released in its fancy blue book form proclaiming "the new era of responsibility". They say the "Devil's in the details" but details don't matter once the Devil has taken you to hell. The market doesn't like Marxism - no matter how lucid the prospectus.

As a student of market history going back as far as the "South Sea bubble" of the 18th century and the "tulip bulb craze" of 17th century Holland, having been a financial professional through peaks and troughs, I used to have confidence in the market. There was an invariable "reversion to the mean" to which astute investors could look forward.

We have our own Bolshevik revolution taking place. The key ingredient of capitalism is in the process of being eliminated from our equity markets overnight.

What did these people EXPECT would result from stacking the deck with tax cheat scoundrels like the one running the Treasury and plundering the responsible people of this country to bailout the deadbeats????

The Boomers and X’ers have failed. Overcome by selfishness, they have failed as parents by allowing the government school teachers, Ward Churchill and Hollywood to raise their children. All of the sudden, they are in college idolizing communists murderers like Che Guevara and electing Barack Hussein Obama.


Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Time for Healing? It depends on what their meaning of "healing" is

by MrArbitrage

After 8 years of the venomous vilification of George W. Bush, liberals in the "mainstream" media, some of whom actually called for Bush’s assassination (veiled as a joke) – now say they want a new tone! “It’s time for the healing. they say” How magnanimous.

Marketwatch columnist Marshall Loeb wrote a piece today titled “How Obama Can Inspire a Nation” – in which he offered some suggestions: “The new president may seek to bind up the nation's wounds after a divisive election campaign. Thomas Jefferson, in his first inaugural in 1801, declared of the two major political parties of the time: "Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We are all Republicans. We are all Federalists."

That is a great quote and it was then true as the primary beliefs were the same among most Americans. The differences that currently divide our country are fundamental. To forget about our differences and unite with the left would be a compromise that any God fearing person -who actually believes in the words of the Declaration of Independence- would be unwilling to make. To the left, the word “Creator”, the One from Whom our inalienable rights were endowed is just an affectation, an inconvenience that they would expunge like the 10 Commandments from an Alabama courthouse and our children’s classroom walls - if they could. In the midst of all the sophistry, they want us to forget who they actually are and from whom they take their orders (ACLU).

I –want - to support Obama because he is the President and quite a charming, affable one at that. However, despite the elegant rhetoric, if he actually does the things he has said he is going to do policy wise, he must be regarded as far from a true friend of liberty as he and his party have for the last 45 years labored to subvert the great pillars of this country expatiated in Washington’s Farewell Address (co-written by the great Hamilton).

It cannot be genuinely stated (reminiscent of Jefferson’s quote) that today “we are all Democrats. We are all Republicans”. To say so would be delusional. Our foundation, our worldviews are polar opposites. We are as two different countries from two different continents.

If reconciliation and “healing” means that I must allow the government to teach my children their brand of “tolerance”, if it means that I must stand by and let these people make a mockery of the institution of marriage – if it means that I must give approbation to the millions of innocent human lives being taken with the sanction of our federal government or the harvesting of human embryos for demented "scientific" experiments, then may God Strike me dead before I ever have the chance to make so egregious a compromise.

It would be better that they tie a millstone around my neck and to be thrown into the ocean than to cause even one of God's children to stumble.

I'm concerned as I hear Christian leaders handle this important subject because there will be a time when even the very elect will be decived. They are acting as though we don't have a clue what he's going to do. I have heard many say that he's our President and we need to pray for him.

As a Christian, I am and will be praying for President Obama. I will be praying that God will not allow him to do the things to this country that he has already promised that he would do.

If Obama is able to fulfill his campaign promises, I am praying that God will have mercy upon us and deliver us from this evil.

This past Sunday was “Sanctity of Life Sunday,” a day in which we prayed for God's mercy on us for the now 50 million innocent human beings whose blood is on our hands. When put into that perspective it testifies to God's mercy and patience. How reasonable is it to expect MORE patience from God, especially when we have a new President who has pledged to expand the atrocities through stem cell research.

It's a sick world out there and I get the feeling that Christian leaders are obtuse to the notion that maybe, just maybe God as he did with his CHOSEN PEOPLE Israel – has handed us over to our enemies. I certainly pray not but time will tell.


Wednesday, February 13, 2008

February 13, 2008

China's Accounting: The Next Debacle?
by MrArbitrage

Speaking of China, I’m going to tell you now, long before all the media experts tell you that - THEY – “told you so first”. China is a ticking ACCOUNTING time bomb. You think we’ve had accounting scandals, wait till you get a load of China.

Within the next few months to a year, sagacious media “experts” will be telling you about how the warning signs were on the wall well in advance - as we saw how these Chinese companies were all to willing to sell our children toys with toxic paint in order to make a few extra bucks. They will bring up the thousands of houses in the USA that are now vacant as they were found to have toxic Chinese paint all over the walls, making their former inhabitants ill.

The “experts” will tell you how that was a portent of things to come. After all, if they are willing to sell you toxic toys and house paint - why should you trust the integrity of their balance sheets and income statements???

The Chinese government is either ignorant or complicit; either way common sense says that something isn’t right. I find it difficult to believe that the chi-com government doesn’t regulate enough.

Remember the 90’s? How did the mafia make fortunes pumping bogus stocks? They knew from the beginning that their companies they pumped and dumped were bogus. They knew their schemes couldn’t last forever. They knew they would suck so much money out of people that it wouldn’t matter by the time everyone caught on. They would be set for life. I’m talking about a brutal regime that as recently as in 1996 was selling the organs of their political prisoners to finance the Red Army. I don’t think they would have any qualms about doing the largest pump and dump in history to suck the money out of their old buddies the USA.

The communist Chinese government is not our friend and they never will be. We have been duped. We have financed their regime and the joke is on us. By the way, is it still legal for me to say negative things about communists in the USA?

I just thought I’d share this with you now in case you are long Chinese securities. If you read, you get these kinds of tid bits at a time when the analysis is actually useful or “actionable” as opposed to reading the many journalists who ruminate on them after all hell has broken loose and it is too late.

I don’t know if China will be the NEXT financial debacle – because our government and their cronies are doing a fine job creating so many here – but I believe China will a fairly near term disaster.